Is peer pressure leading you to debt?

 

[ Source ]

Your friends and peers influence your life. Wikipedia explains that

Peer pressure refers to the influence exerted by a peer group in encouraging a person to change his or her attitudes, values, or behavior in order to conform to group norms.

Peer pressure often starts at very early stage in life and it never stops. The term “peer pressure” has come to connote a very negative thing (as the cartoon above indicates), but it can be a significant positive force also. (example1, example2)

There is no doubt that everyone needs a peer group to act share one’s emotions and feelings. But, the problem begins when one starts changing their behavior or act according to peer group, just to remain “fit” in the group. This is also a very common complaint from parents, when confronted with un-acceptable behavior from their children.

The most vivid memory that I have of dealing with peer pressure is during my college days. I come from a poor family and it can be easily seen from my cloths or my bi-cycle wherein my classmates used to come dressed up impressively or in their two-wheelers/four-wheelers. I felt extreme pressure to match up but never had the money, and so I could never “fit” or got accepted into the peer group.

I recently shifted to a new apartment (just few months back) and started interacting with my neighbors, and I realized that there are many folks who have a habit of “showing-off”, making them prone to financial debts. So their wives will sport an iPhone, spend Rs 2500 on window-shopping randomly every week, esp on apparels (and despite that they dress shabbily), keeping a full-time servant, chauffeur (without any real-need) or commuting daily by cabs (wouldn’t it be cheap to own a car) or spending evenings in lavish restaurants (I know for sure that these are not their company paid facilities).

The motivation for these actions is not any real need but peer pressure to fit in the group. If we are surrounded by people who are rich (or showing-off that they are rich), then we would also feel the need to upgrade our cars, cloths or throw lavish parties. The whole problem with why we succumb to peer pressure is because we feel the need for acceptance.

Peer pressure can lead to significant waste of money and it's not just ourselves who we have to worry about. If you have a partner or children you'll also suffer financially whenever they come under peer pressure. So at one end you may want to reduce your monthly expenses but on the other hand you may be forced to spend unnecessarily on useless things just to satiate your family’s emotional needs, so they be part of some crappy peer group.

It is extremely difficult to fight peer pressure, since it can come in from variety of ways:

• Keeping up with others in terms of buying big cars or expensive plasma TVs or mobiles
• Impressing your girl-friend/wife/in-laws in terms of expensive gifts to justify your love or caring not only to the concerned person but also to everyone in your peer group.
• One of the biggest pressure for newly married folks comes in the form of this question, “So where are you going to honeymoon?”. Most folks will burn-out their entire saving just to mention that they went to Singapore/Bangkok (crowded place) rather than an idyllic Kerala/Darjeeling.
• Buying bigger houses just because everyone in their peer group has bought a house. This is especially true in Bangalore, since most people coming here are in some kind of strange hurry to own a house. It is termed as “biggest investment of your life”, even if it turns out to be crappy decision. I totally oppose it.
• Sending their kids to expensive schools (I was aghast when I got to know that my neighbor’s one year kid goes to a school whose fees is 15 lakhs a year) or throwing a totally unnecessary lavish party as a show-off. How can a one year kid distinguish whether his birthday was celebrated in a high end restaurant or their own house? The consolation given by parents – I want to give my kid the best I can afford. Duh.

So how to handle peer pressure and how to stop yourself from bleeding financially? How to stop accumulating debt by resisting peer pressure? Here are some pointers

• Stop worrying about what “others think about me”. Others are probably busy thinking the same thing and don’t have time to think about you.
• Trust your own instincts rather than following the herd. If you are convinced about your choices and reasoning behind them, then stick to it. You can only decide what is best for you. You should have the confidence in what you believe and the boldness to stand for it.
• Recognize peer pressure. If you are trying to spend money on something, ask yourself critically, as to why you are buying it. If you really need it, then only go ahead with the purchase.
• Be absolutely clear about your monetary priorities and be honest discussing it with friends. Remember that everyone’s priorities will be different, so there is no “one fit for all” solutions in financial world.
• If some friends are just putting pressure despite your resistance, then ignore them and find new friends. A friend who does not care about your opinions is not worth friendship.

Remember that if you don’t want to get under any peer pressure influence, try not to put anyone (especially your friends) into it as well.

Financial Risks of Social Networking

There has been a huge spurt in the social networking sites and the number of people addicted to it. If you just look at the Facebook statistics, it is mind boggling, check the screen-shot below

Facebook has more than 300 million active user (note that these stats might be a bit out of date since these are not dynamically updated). It is also estimated that young people are more attracted towards these social networking sites, as indicated below

These networking sites are great, but with the number of users growing enormously, the end-user is getting exposed to so many risks. It is growing like a jungle, where at each turn, you may encounter someone sitting with a trap to get on to you.

How many user, who subscribe to Twitter or Facebook actually read the privacy policy while signing-up? As an example, Twitter recently updated its privacy policies and I doubt any of the current user even knew about it. (Here's a link to the updated policy and a link to the old policy.) The twitter policy is way much simpler and easier to understand than say Facebook’s policy. It is extremely difficult to wade through this mumbo-jumbo of legal terms, so probably even if someone brave enough tries to makes sense of it, will fall flat on his/her face.

You would think, why someone should actually read or bother about these policies. Google has warned about privacy issues on social web in a paper [PDF] presented at the Web 2.0 Security and Privacy 2009 workshop.

There are multiple aspects to the risks associated with social networking sites and privacy is just one of them. The risks ranges from someone hacking into your profiles to the risk of infantilizing the human mind.

One of the significant aspects of privacy on such websites like Twitter is the website utilizing the data generated by their users. There is absolutely nothing from legal standpoint to prevent this usage. These types of applications are not that far-fetched, given reports of tools to analyze someone's social network and assess their credit worthiness ("Rapleaf") or psychological profile ("TweetPsych").

But how would these lead to financial losses (which is the main focus of this post)? Well these social sites can lead to huge financial losses to the users by

• Making you loose your job, similar to Heather Armstrong or @theconner
• Making you loose your insurance benefits similar to Nathalie Blanchard.
• Data misuse after hacking your personal information including degrading your credit rating.
• Making you have legal liabilities for using trademarks with-out following the rules. You may use some trade-mark symbols/names into your own merchandise (like this) or your website.

So it is extremely important to keep your eyes open about these risks when interacting socially. Any data that leaves your computer can come back to haunt you.

How to reduce your monthly expense?

I recently got a stealthy email from my a very good buddy. The content of the email was crisp asking me for some 15,000 Rs, he was short this month and needed to pay-back someone. I helped him out, but it got me thinking why he got himself into such a situation. He is earning decently (I would imagine around 20 Lakh PA), do not have any family responsibilities (all his sisters are married off) and just has one kid.

As per me, this is definitely not a good sign when you have to borrow from your friends. I am not against borrowing money, after all  friends are for helping you out, but it should be for a genuine reason.

Why so many educated people fail to manage their personal finance?

The single underlying principle for managing money is

Make your expenses lesser than your income

Is this so difficult to understand, that to save money, your expenses should be less than what your earn.  Yet, I find so many people struggling to maintain this equation, eventually letting themselves buried into debt.

So how exactly we should implement this in our daily life? How to spend less and save more? How to reduce expenses? The answer lies in getting into “good financial habits”. If you are single, you need to develop these into yourself, if you are married you need to share these thoughts with your spouse and inculcate these within both the partners. It is more difficult with kids, if you have any, but once these become part of your family, it will go a long way in helping your children in their lifetime.

Here are some great techniques to reduce your expenses:

• Start on 1st day of the month and every night note down all the money you spent that day. You can do it as a combined list of family (preferable) or you can do it separately for each family member. I assure you that this is extremely painful to start with since it wont bring any immediate relief but do it diligently without fail. Note down every detail of what you spent through cash, credit card, online purchase or any other mechanism. Also note down the channel you are paying through. You can use some software on your desktop or mobile to keep track of you expenses or use just a plain paper

                  You can also use application like this for iPhone

• Once you have this list (the hard-work has to give you some benefit) ready, then it is the time to walk through it and arrange the items in following categories
  • Must-Haves like rent, electricity bills, food bills
  • Emergency Purchases like medicines,
  • Casual/Impulsive Purchases like clothing, mobile phones, books, eating out etc
  • Social purchases like gifts
  • Useless purchases
• Then, go through these monthly bills or recurring expenses and see if there is something that you really need. For example do you really need to buy these costly books every month or you could just subscribe to a near-by library in your locality. I have actually reduced these expenses in my budget (I am a voracious reader). I used to buy books/novels worth more than 20K per year, this is exorbitant (not only in terms of buying but also in terms to keeping them, I spend more when I have to relocate since these books make those so many extra cartons). So I joined one of the local libraries and I have reduced by expenses to mere 1K per year along with gaining immense variety of books. There are hundreds of such expenses that you can cut-down without sacrificing your living standards or the returns in terms of value that you are getting.
• Some of the expenses can be saved just by tweaking your daily habits. You would be amazed that simple habits like switching off lights, fans or chargers can provide significant savings. We did that by switching off chargers or TV switch (not just switching off from the remote, but actual switch). These have given me a saving of as much as 100 Rs per month on my electricity bills (i.e. 1200 Rs per year). It may sound like too much pain for saving such miniscule amount, but think of it as serving to the society, doing this in the larger interest of the country. You can install CFLs instead of those big bright tube-lights or don’t run those geysers only when needed and not for long period. These are non-renewable energy and such saving by millions of people can be simply huge.
• One of most effective tip that I use consistently is to store my all credit cards in least accessible places like in the locker or a suitcase which is stashed away. The idea is not to keep credit cards at places where you can quickly pick up before going to a shopping mall. I also have a credit card with a credit limit of not more than 10K, this helps me to gain the real advantage of credit card (use it to so that you don’t need to keep the cash with you and useful during emergencies). So why keep those other credit cards with huge credit limits? Well they would be useful when I want to travel or for making those big purchases so that I can convert them into equated monthly installments with a small fee or to get those discounts at specific services (e.g. I get one ticket free when I buy two movie tickets on a ICICI platinum cards in PVR cinemas).
• Never buy on impulse, one of most crucial principle for money saving. The entire idea of those glitzy shopping malls and front displays is to attract the consumer and make him buy impulsively. Some people justify that impulsive buying is good sometime since you can get good bargains. I absolutely dis-agree, impulsive buying can never be good. What is the definition of impulsive buying:

An impulse purchase or impulse buy is an unplanned or otherwise spontaneous purchase. This can metamorphise into a serious disease.

• So if the purchase was not planned, it means the consumer actually do not need it and hence even if the product is free, it is a bad bargain. So it brings to another point is that when-ever you go on shopping make a list of items that you intend to buy and just stick to it. No additional purchases should be made even when it is so much necessary (it will automatically inculcate better habit of planning ahead more carefully for the next trip)
• I recently got invited to a birthday bash of a 1 year kid from my neighborhood. I was totally amused that how a 1 year kid would know at-all the difference between a small @ home birthday party vis-a-vis a lavish party in a fancy restaurant. It was an absolute useless expenditure and it was coming from the urge to show-off (I have loads of money or I care for my child etc etc) rather than a genuine focus on the child. I would rather invite only kids with their mothers in a small party at home, since seeing so many kids playing around will probably be more entertaining for the kid.
• Un-clutter your house, because clutter saps energy and money. Christopher Lowell says “Clutter is dandruff on the shoulders of your room”, so don’t give excuses for not de-cluttering your life. You need to get rid of “can’t-get-rid-of-that-because-it’s-valuable” gene, it is so harmful. check out this 9 Tips for Decluttering (Zen Habits)
• It is important to give up those harmful habits like cigarettes, alcohol or drugs. These not only save money in short-term, it also saves money in long-term by improving your health and reducing medical bills over the years. Invest that in a gym or personal improvement programs.

At every step in your life, while dealing with money, keep in mind that “Expenses have to be lower than what you earn”, and even after so many efforts in reducing your expenses you are hitting the debt, then it is time to look for earning more. That would be of-course another post.

Job Loss Insurance

Job loss always hurts, but people find ways to make money out of other’s misery. I knew about job-loss insurance being available in other countries, but recently it got introduced in India. So insurance companies are now willing to pay EMIs in case of job loss.

Under the cover extended by ICICI, customers will get their three EMIs paid in case of a job loss due to retrenchment or layoffs. Moreover the job loss due to the closure of a division because of poor financial condition or action taken by any public authority resulting in the closure will also be covered by the insurer.

Can a job-loss insurance give you a piece of mind after a job loss? I have my doubts!!

Excellent Article – Holes in the Ground

I earlier wrote about “why not to buy a house” (Part-1, Part-2). But I recently came across an excellent write-up from Deepak on a more balanced approach towards buying a house. He writes scathingly on the way builders cheat the prospective buyers:

Typical deals are: you sign on a piece of paper looking at a hole in the ground. The builder promises to give you a "ready" house in say three years. The apartment size is shown to you and the "amenities" you will get, like a swimming pool, a tennis court, water to drink, air to breathe etc. You then get a bank loan for 20 years for some part of it, and the rest will fall in place.

The most eye-opening was the youtube video by a Unitech buyer who got really pissed-off by the way the company delivered the house. This reminded me of one of my friend who purchased a flat (~1700 sq. feet) near Sarjapur Road at the exorbitant price of Rs 2350 per sq. feet. The worst it is located not on the main road, but almost 3-4 KM inside. He recently shifted with not even the compound wall completed (no question of amenities in place yet). It was shocking and I have begun to agree more so with Deepak that the best buy for a house is the one that is either “ready to move” or “second hand purchase” :

But I'll pay well to get a ready house: if I'm buying for emotional reasons I would rather not have the worry and pain.

So true!!

What to do on getting Pink Slip – Concrete Steps

One fine morning, you reach office and your manager says “Let’s talk”. You suddenly get hundreds of thoughts because these are tough times. Your manager (depends on how he handles it) gives you the pink slip. The first reaction is of-course the DENIAL. This could not be happening to me. Here are the things you should do on getting the pink slip:

• Keep in mind that pink-slip does not indicate you incapability or incompetence. This is extremely important to realize as quickly as possible, since self-confidence will open hundreds of other doors for you. A pink slip just indicates employer’s incapability to either keep you employed or to fit you in the organization. Period.
• Relax take a deep breath and discuss with your manager about
• Severance Package
• Other Policy details related to lay-off
• Thank your manager and ask him some contacts
• Call up your friends in office (if allowed to meet, do meet them), discuss the situation and make sure not to let people show mercy for you. Ask them for their help/contacts (note down their personal email address)
• The biggest mistake people do is not to discuss the lay-off with their family members (spouse/parents/kids). A family is meant to provide the moral support needed in the hour of crisis and here is one. So don’t be hesitant, you have not failed them, rather it is just a phase, so discuss it openly with them. Don’t be ashamed to talk about it and the reason for the lay-off, it helps them to understand your problems as well as a way for you to out-pour the frustration.
• Take a day or two off with your family and try to forget and think about it. Over-speculation on “why you” will lead to more frustration rather than getting any answers. It is really worthless to discuss/think on why you were chosen. Instead give your mind some peace, so as to deal with the crisis in a pragmatic manner.
• Usually it takes 1-2 days to finally sink that you have been fired. In those 1-2 days, thoughts fly at jet speed and the more you try to think or sort out, the more confuse you become, hence it is very important to take these initial few days as a vacation. It is difficult, but extremely important.
• Now start focusing on the financial aspect of your lay-off. It is not at all difficult and you need to keep telling yourself and your family that world is not about to end, rather this is the time for all family members to come together and provide inputs on how to handle the financial situation. What to do:
• List down your hard cash (at home, in banks, FDs etc)
• Do not touch the long-term investments, so don’t even think about them.
• List down the monthly expenses to extreme detail (include for e.g. toothpaste expense per month)
• Strike the items which can be done without (e.g. dining out, movies etc)
• The remaining list will tell you how much monthly money you need and how much cash you have will indicate how many months you can survive without earning.
• List down the loan EMIs, credit card balance to be paid etc. These are the items which will cost you the most. And these are the items you seriously need to re-think on “how to get rid of them”. Make sure not to panic and start offloading everything. Give yourself 1-2 months and see if you can get some job.
• Do not even think of using credit card or personal loans to tide the expenses. This is the time to reduce your debt and not to increase it.
• Start updating your resume. Also call in your contacts and start sending the resume. You can also search on google for some consultants or job search websites and upload your resume. Simultaneously, start refreshing your basics for any interview call. You need to be prepared for any sudden interview calls and give your best shot.This is the time when your networking helps you a lot.
• It is also important to understand that all work is good, just because you were earning a handsome salary of 1 Lakh per month doesn’t mean that now earning Rs 20000 per month on part time basis is a bad idea. The only thing important is that you are earning back as quickly as possible and the temporary job you are getting into is aligned to your field. As an example, if you were a software engineer, following jobs can be a good idea:
• Software consultant on part-time basis
• Teaching SW Engg in a college/training institute as a visiting faculty
• On-line software development projects or finding other genuine ways to earn money online [like documentation or creating SW training materials etc].
• You can even encourage your spouse to take up the temporary job (if he/she is not working) while making yourself available for the house-work.
• If you really ever thought of starting your own enterprise, this is the god-given opportunity. This is the time to take risk, since you can’t be worse off.
• Most importantly you need to be patient while searching for job and you have to have confidence on your own ability. Keep finding the doors which can lead you out of the crisis, it does exist!!

Stock Market FAQs

• What is a share?

Shares/Stocks are document which allows the holder to own a part of the company. This is an important definition, holding/buying a stock is just not holding a piece of paper (or in electronic form) but it is like owning a part of the company.

• Why companies sell shares?

Any company is initially owned by a single promoter or joint promoters with unlimited liability. The term unlimited liability implies that if the company goes bankrupt, the promoters are totally liable. Sometimes the company is owned by group of people (promoters & non-promoters) with limited liability.  The term limited liability implies that the owner’s liability is limited to their contribution to the initial capital.

When business expands, the owners decide to raise money. There are many ways to raise money, one of which is to approach the common public allowing them to own some part of the company for the money they will provide.

• What is the difference between debt and equity?

Debt: Similar to normal public borrowing from banks (loans). When companies issue debt instruments, they want to borrow money from specific investors or in general public. This is different from equity which is borrowing money by selling a part of the company ownership

 

Debt	Equity
No company ownership	Part of company owned by holders
Company legally bound to pay interest (similar to loans)	Company may or may not pay dividends (not called interest since it is not decided/declared)
High preference over Equity owners	Least priority

• What are primary and secondary markets?

Primary Market: The public buys the issue directly from company e.g. IPO (Initial Public Offering)

Secondary Market: The public (investor) buys the shares from other investors e.g. normal share trading (on NSE/BSE)

• What is Fixed priced Issue and Book Built Issue?

When a company decides to go public, it wants to float the IPO. This is essentially the first time the company shares will be sold and part of ownership given away to raise funds. So what should be the basis to decide the price of the initial offering?

Fixed priced Issue: The company decides the initial price of the share (taking the help from experts) and it is mandatory for the company to disclose in the IPO documents about the various factors that are being taken to fix the particular price. The price is fixed.

Book Built priced Issue: The company uses the free market to determine the initial price offering based on the supply and demand of the proposed shares. In essence, asking the public (taking bids) to decide what is the price they are willing to pay for the share.

• What is Face Value, Price Band and Cut-off Price?

Face Value: It is the value of the share printed on the share certificate. It is normally Rs 10. The importance of the face value is only for the company, in terms of the accounting entries. The actual value or price of the share is usually higher than the face value (the difference is called the premium).

Premium = Market Value – Face Value

The money generated by selling the shares of the companies are not entered in the same place in the accounting books of the company. For e.g. if the Face Value = Rs 10, Premium = Rs 90, hence the actual price that the company received for one share is Rs 100 (Rs 10 + Rs 90). If the company floated say 1 Lakh shares, then it actually received Rs 100 Lakh by selling those shares. In accounting books however, it will write :

Equity Increase (by selling shares) = Rs 10 Lakh

Reserves & Surpluses = Rs 90 Lakh

There are obviously benefits of doing this. Face value is also called Book Value and more information can be obtained from the wiki page.

In a Book Built Issue, the promoters/owners of the company decide a price range within which the bidding can happen. This is called price band. The final issue price decided by owners after the book-built process is called cut-off price.

• What is Red-Herrings Prospectus?

It is a preliminary registration statement that must be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission or provincial securities commission. It describes the issue (IPO) and the prospects of the company.

LIC Jeevan Aastha – An eye opener article

Sandeep Shanbhag wrote an excellent eye opener article on LIC’s Jeevan Aastha. I am just re-reading it and admiring the author’s penetrating eyes to get the essential out of the marketing mumbo-jumbo.

Jeevan Aastha is a fixed-return investment plan that would offer a return in the range of 6.75% to 7.25% p.a in most cases.

Mutual Fund Tracking

Chandoo created this excellent Mutual Fund excel sheet that act as a simple Mutual Fund tracker. The USP of the excel sheet is that it fetches the MF NAVs from the website and uses that to track your funds. The problem with the excel sheet is that if you have subscribed to MF Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) then it is difficult to use the mutual fund excel sheet. So I modified the excel sheet to add your SIP investment tracking too. Here is the modified excel sheet. Here is a screenshot :

             

Here are the steps to use the excel sheet:

• Select the name of MF from the drop down list
• Enter the start date of MF SIP
• Enter the starting units (as of held today)
• Enter the amount per month

This will immediately give you the results for your portfolio. (Make sure to refresh the NAV sheet for latest NAVs).

You just need to open the excel sheet everyday. It will compare the today’s date with the MF SIP start date. If the date matches, it will automatically update the Units field (by using the today’s NAV and amount per month).

Satyam Crisis – What is there to learn?

One of the significant quote from Benjaman Graham’s Intelligent Investor is that “Every stock has a company behind it!!”. The biggest proponent of value investing, Graham intends to change the way investors look at stocks. The primary aspect of Graham philosophy is to invest only in companies that you know.

This implies that “Assessing Management” is one of the primary aspect of study before investing in the company. An investor need to  evaluate the credibility of the management. While it is important to establish the credibility of management based on what they have delivered in past, but most of the time an investor gets influenced by the image created by the media of its CEOs or promoters. So while “Reliance” is good and the image of Ambani Brothers may be excellent, it is important to look at, what the management delivered for each of the Reliance companies.

This fact is highlighted by the recent Satyam fiasco. Satyam planned to buy two real estate firms Maytas Infra and Mytas properties with 1.6 billion $. The chairman of Satyam, B. Ramalinga Raju justfied the buy saying

Stating that it is part of its plan to de-risk the core IT business in times of recession, Mr B. Ramalinga Raju, Chairman of Satyam, said the combined entity would help face the challenging environment and uncertainty in the market.

This raised suspicion among investors not only in terms of buyout giving significant benefits to the promoter family but also in terms of valuation of Maytas, causing Satyam to drop the acquisition plans.

Byrraju Ramaling Raju has been a well-known and renowned name in the field of Information Technology, receiving lot of awards. Just seaching for B. Ramalinga Raju gives you enough information about the person and the media report will cause you to believe that the person have impeccable credibility. In fact Satyam received “ Golden Peacock Global Award for Excellence in Corporate Governance” 

The honor is especially relevant given that corporate governance best practices are considered key benchmarks by stakeholders who evaluate corporations. In fact, their importance is magnified in difficult economic environments.

If we just look at the stock price of Mytas Infra and Satyam on 16th Dec,

16th December	226.55 (Satyam)	481.00 (Mytas Infra)
19th December	162.00 (Satyam)	246.00 (Mytas Infra)

The dates are important since 16th Dec evening, the news was officially announced of a Satyam buyout of Mytas. This can be significant if we see that stock prices of most of the infrastructure and software companies are going down. This essentially gives a feeling of insider trading!!

The biggest learning for a value investor is that

Do not just bank on the big names in the industry, but to assess the management, go into the details of how much the management has delivered in the past years.

Some interesting reads on this:

• Financial Express 1 
• Financial Express 2
• Mint Editorial
• Motely Fool
• Hindu Business Line

Dilbert – Financial Markets Explained

This is absolutely hilarious. Scott Adams writes on his blog:

Think of financial theory as a stool. The stool is supported by three legs, or truisms.

• History always repeats.
• Past performance is no indication of future returns.
• Asshats are trying to steal your money.

These three truisms can explain any financial phenomenon. For example, if your financial advisor suggests that you invest in a market bubble that is about to burst, he will explain that the past is no indication of future results. Just because a Price/Earnings ratio of 45 has never been sustainable in the past doesn't mean it won't be perfectly safe in the future.
And when the bubble bursts and you lose half of your money, your advisor will explain it's because history always repeats. In other words, he's an asshat trying to steal your money.
This stool also explains the housing situation. Financial experts knew that making loans to hobos had never been a good idea in the past. On the other hand, past performance is no indication of future returns. Maybe this time would be different. Then history repeated and asshats stole your money. As a bonus, they even stole each other's money this time. You have to admire their thoroughness.
One last thing you need to know: People who say it is a good time to invest are called bulls. The bulls are at the center of all financial problems.
In summary, if you want to understand financial markets find a bull and look at his stool.

Best time for car buying is, now !!

I recently went for a car upgrade and realized that “now” is the best time to buy or upgrade your car. If you have been thinking about buying a new car or even upgrading your existing car or even buying a second hand car, Dec – 08 probably is a bonanza month for getting a handsome deal.

Here are some of the reasons why December this year is better:

Dealer Discounts: December is the month, when car sales usually drop. A typical consumer wants to buy a car in Jan since that changes the model year of the vehicle in expectations of higher re-sale value. This year due to the economic downturn, the car sales have already hit badly, hence dealers are trying to push sales aggressively to reduce the inventory. So you can expect huge discounts on all ranges of cars.

Government Fiscal Stimulus Package : To provide some boost to the automobile sector which is hit by falling sales this year, government has announced a 4% excise duty cut. As per reports :

Maruti Suzuki India (MSI), the country’s largest car maker, announced it was cutting prices effective from midnight. “We are looking at passing on the entire benefit to the customers. We shall be cutting down prices in the range of 3.5-4% from midnight and most of our vehicles will be cheaper by that percentage,” MSI chairman R C Bhargava said.

This again brings huge benefit to the ultimate consumers.

Ease of Auto-Loan : With government trying to bring the repo rate down to ease liquidity crunch with the banks, it becomes easier for banks to provide auto-loans.

Whenever the banks have any shortage of funds they can borrow it from RBI. Repo rate is the rate at which our banks borrow rupees from RBI. A reduction in the repo rate will help banks to get money at a cheaper rate. When the repo rate increases borrowing from RBI becomes more expensive.

This can bring the auto-loan rate by 1-2% and makes the loan easier on the consumer pockets.

When I walked into the Sagar Automobiles (Maruti showroom on B.G. Road), I realized that almost all vehicle prices are down by a huge amount. For example, a typical WagonR Lxi which was priced at around 4.1 lakhs on road, now coming at 3.6 lakhs on road. If you already own a maruti vehicle and want to upgrade you can bargain for more discounts. Also the loans are coming cheaper with SBI giving a loan at 11.75-12%, while private banks at around 13% (which might be reducing further). BTW another reason to cheer while buying a car is the reduction in petrol prices. Also there is talk of privatizing the petroleum products (Petrol and Diesel), and if that happens, the prices are about to fall further. Consumer is the king for now!!

Mystery of Dividends – Stock Vs Mutual Fund

I was talking to a friend about dividends in stocks and he suddenly came up with “What are dividends in mutual funds?”. I said it is different. Here is the answer:

Stocks : When an investor purchases a share of a company, he is essentially owning some part in the company.  Dividends are payments made by a company to its shareholders. When a company earns a profit or surplus, that money can be put to two uses: it can either be re-invested in the business (called retained earnings), or it can be paid to the shareholders as a dividend. A dividend payout typically indicates that the company has confidence in earnings growth and sufficient profitability to fund future expansion. Also for investors, it makes sense to earn that extra income for investing in the company, rather than waiting for the share price to rise up to get the profit.

Mutual Funds : When an investor purchases units of Mutual Fund, he is essentially contributing to the mutual fund corpus (similar to thousand others), which the MF will invest in various shares. The price at which these units are purchased at any particular time is called NAV. The problem with mutual fund NAVs is that when a mutual fund declares dividends, the NAV is affected.

For example, say for an XYZ mutual fund scheme, the NAV today is Rs 50. If the mutual fund declares a dividend of Rs 2 per unit. So if an investor has bought 100 units, he will get Rs 200 as cash. The problem is that this immediately reduces the NAV to Rs 48 (Rs 50 – Rs 2). Hence essentially the investor’s remaining worth has been reduced by Rs 200.

So whatever profit an investor has made due to increase of NAV, MF has given some part of it as cash back to the investor and called as dividend. The net worth of investor remained same, just that he has received some of it in cash.

Value Investing

I was talking to few of my office-mates and realized that out of the team of forty, just ten had exposures to equity (shocking??) and only three-four have demat account and actively trade in stocks. It is not the effect of the recent meltdown, but despite the euphoria that existed just few months before about Indian stock market, lot of people still are stuck with traditional investment/saving plans.

I guess the real reason is the fear of loosing money. I usually do not blog about stocks, since I do not believe in giving recommendations of buy or sell. But for a normal investor, it makes sense to involve stocks as a part of his investments, but it is also important to make it part of long-term strategy rather than thinking short-term.

When I talked to few people, I realize that people want to invest in stocks because:

1. I want to get quick returns (with few months, I can double the money etc)
2. My friends are investing and so I should too
3. I has some lump-sum money, some relatives/friends suggested to invest in stocks.

Most of the retail investors have wrong expectations from the stock market, especially after hearing of friends, relatives earning big bucks from stocks.

It is important to understand that “Nothing is free in life” including returns from stock-market. The people who have earned those handsome amount, have either burned their fingers earlier or have spent lots of time on understanding markets and investing in smaller amounts.

Nobody got instant money from stock market without hard work.

Investing in stocks requires a disciplined approach. One such approach is what is called Value Investing. In simple terms:

Buy stocks which are priced below it’s intrinsic value.

The approach to finding “intrinsic value” is by determining the fundamentals of the company. It is a balanced approach involving analysis of data involving the company. There are lot of books available on the topic (e.g. this book), but “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham is considered as the bible of value investing (you can get an e-copy on ensips here, but may be illegal). There are lot of excellent forums for beginners or experts on investing in Indian Stock Markets like Traderji or Equity Desk (an excellent post by Basant on Equity Desk).  I am currently reading the book and may do a review sometime later.

Terrorism Insurance

Mumbai was attacked by terrorists like never before and it is being considered as the biggest terror attacks on Mumbai.

 

No one has yet estimated the amount of damage suffered by the Taj and Oberoi Hotels. I saw the picture of Harbour Bar at the Taj Hotel in the Times Of India, it left me speechless, here it is :

                   

Any terrorist attack can cause significant damage to the property. Insurers typically have a risk analysis for any events before they provide cover for it, but I do not think there was any risk analysis ever done for terrorist attacks. The same applied to the 9/11 attack on US. The insurance companies in US post 9/11 stopped giving insurance against terrorist activities.

After September 11, 2001, many businesses were no longer able to purchase insurance protecting against property losses that might occur in future terrorist attacks.Addressing this problem, Congress enacted the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 20021 (TRIA) to create a temporary program to share future insured terrorism losses with the property-casualty insurance industry and policyholders. The act  requires insurers to offer terrorism insurance to their commercial policyholders, preserves state regulation of this type of insurance, and directs the Secretary of the Treasury to administer a program for sharing terrorism losses. The three-year program that TRIA created backs up commercial property and casualty insurance, covering up to $100 billion each year after set insurer deductibles. The government pays 90% of insured losses over the deductible, with the insurer paying 10%.

A similar thing might happen with insurance companies in India, with so many terrorist attacks happening frequently. So before buying any insurance, it needs to be ensure that the policy covers damages due to terrorist activities. This is more true for the businesses. So few months back, TOI reported increase in adding terrorism insurance by people in India. It is a sensible move and should be done by everyone.

Surviving Layoffs - Financially

We are certainly looking at a global slowdown in economy. With it comes the layoffs. I was discussing with one of my wife’s friend who is in retail industry on “Why during a recession the axe first falls on junior employees?”. If the economy is real bad, then only the senior management (upper layer) is targeted. Economically, it makes sense (if we are talking about purely cost-cutting) to reduce the management layers than the one at the last rung in the ladder. How many believe that removing upper layers will break the hierarchy and lower levels would be difficult to manage? May be, the answer depends, on which level you are currently working !! But, laying off at lower layers gives an impression of cost-cutting, spreading cheers among the shareholders.

Another thing which I hate, when company goes through rough patches, is the lack of clarity among employees, which comes from the top. Usually, no one is clear what will happen! Instead if the company openly communicates the state of the company to its employees and then does a pay cut (instead of firing), it will make more sense.

The fact is that no-one can escape the layoff/pink-slip in today’s uncertain times and hence it is prudent to prepare for it. One of the most important aspect of lay-off is the sudden loss of income (apart from the frustration and loss of self-esteem).

Here are some tips that might help you survive (or even blossom) during these tough times:

1) Severance Package: Some companies have a fixed policy of how much severance package is given out to laid off employees. For example, my company provide the gross income for (one + number of years of you service)  months. So I just completed two years, and hence if I get the pink-slip, I will get (one + two) = three months of gross salary. It is important that you find out what policy your company has, since sometimes the package can be negotiable. This means, if you get more, you can survive more months without job.

2) Reduce Debts : Yes, it looks like a common sense. If the income is gone, the expenditure has to go down. But the point here is that if you are still employed and the markets are uncertain, why wait till you get to hear you last day in company. Why not start reducing your liabilities?

• Credit cards : One of the biggest enemy of a slowdown economy. If you notice carefully, some of the credit card companies have themselves started charging more from customers to battle the slowing economy. So pay off as soon as you can. Also just remove all those credit cards from your and your spouse’s wallet and dump it inside the locker.
• Car loans : If you have that big car, the status symbol, which you brought when the economy was booming and you were the king, it is time to think it as a liability, a burden. Think carefully, can you switch to a lower car (Diwali times calls for a good deal while switching cars), else can you save enough to pay-off the loan, do it (even if you have to incur the pre-payment charges) .
• Home Loans : You can not do anything about this, except that in really worst situation, you can
  • Sell it, (but these times are not good for selling either)
  • Rent it out (you can shift to some other rented apartment with a lower rent). Desperate times needs desperate measures.
• Children education/marriage : Unless you are on the verge of marrying your child or sending him for higher education, you just have to find some source of income to handle the expenses.

3) Reduce Home expenses: If you already out of job or you feel that it might happen, try to reduce your daily expenses. No longer dinning out or take home calls or those late-night parties or expensive cuisines. Reduce the expense of travel, booze, visit to multiplexes and stick to only essentials. It might look like an overkill if you are still having your job, but reducing these expenses gets you into the habit (which you have lost over the period of time) and also it causes the saving of that money.

4)  Emergency Funds : If you have created the emergency funds like liquid cash(FDs) and jewellery, try to utilize them at the very last moment.  Break that FD or sell that gold jewellery only after you have cut down your expenses to bare minimum. If you don’t have such a fund, start thinking of creating it. The essential is a) three-six months of household expenses in liquid cash (Fixed Deposit is better) b)

 

                                                         To be continued …

What is Sub Prime Lending?

Whenever any of the customer visits a bank asking for loan, every bank in India or abroad will ask for certain documents. These might vary from the type of loan to the various institutes. The main idea behind asking for documents is to ascertain the credibility of a customer from his/her credit card transactions or previous loan transactions and guess the background of customer’s financial capability. 

In India for example, if you try to get a home loan, you are asked your salary certificate and other loan details. This will indicate the capability of a customer to repay back the loan and also is an indicator of the amount of risk a bank is taking on that customer. The bank earn by charging interest rate on the loan.

The sub-prime lending came because there are lot of demand for loans in the market and the laws were less strict in terms of whom to give the loan. Hence banks started giving money to customers even with poor credit ratings. This implies that banks took more risk (knowing that the possibility of the repayment is less) as per the history of the customer. This is done, so that banks can charge customers higher interest rates and can get a huge profits. The idea is that even if few percent loans get defaulted, you still can recover the losses by charging those extremely high interests.

Subprime loans can offer an opportunity for borrowers with a less-than-ideal credit record to become a home owner. Borrowers may use this credit to purchase homes, or in the case of a cash-out refinance, finance other forms of spending such as purchasing a car, paying for living expenses, remodeling a home, or even paying down on a high interest credit card.

There was also a lot of fraud involved in this sub-prime lending. Since a bank can charge higher interest and administrative charges on a sub-prime lending, they even started giving such loans to borrowers who were well with their credit history.

Imagine if most of the borrowers start defaulting on the sub-prime loan taken. The lenders would suffer significantly and that is what happened. The financial complexity of how such simple thing can lead to the current US financial crisis is difficult to understand.

Saving Money from 10 Free Softwares

I recently bought a black HP Pavillion desktop for around 30K INR. It came with a “Starter edition” of Microsoft Vista, and lot of pre-installed HP Junk. It is natural being a techie to start surfing for free software for replacing some of the junk that come with Windows and to save money from buying those expensive softwares. Here is a list of softwares that I daily use, some to increase my productivity, some to replace pre-installed softwares and some to save money instead of buying those expensive softwares :

1) K-Meleon Browser : No doubt Internet Explorer is junk and can be harmful in terms of unauthorized scripts or pop ups. So most people recommend Firefox. I love it, but with FF3, is extremely bloated and eats up huge amount of my RAM. I tries Opera and Safari but didn’t like anything. Then I found K-Meleon, which is based on Gecko layout engine. It comes with few useful extensions too. It is fast and have some unique features too. A simple example is switching proxies with one-click. I use different proxies for my home and office, and using K-Meleon, I can switch between them in just one click. Very useful for me. 

2) CClearner : A pretty neat system optimization software. It removes unused files from your system - allowing Windows to run faster and freeing up valuable hard disk space. I have used it without any side effects and it helps me keep Windows stable.

3) Launchy : Launchy is a free windows utility designed to help you forget about your start menu, the icons on your desktop, and even your file manager. A very handy tool, just press Alt-Space and it pops up, type whatever application you want to open say “word” or “vim”, it even shows various options. No need to go through “Start –> Programs” etc. Very productive and time saving and best mouse-free.

4) GNU Image Manipulation : GIMP is a free image manipulation software. It is extremely rich in features and can be very handy for amateurs as well as professionals for imagine retouching or any manipulations of image. It can be used for fun as well as for business purposes. Lot of people feel that it is very clumsy to use, but once you get hang of it, you will love it. You can do extreme makeover using GIMP, as the following example illustrates :

It surely is a replacement for Adobe Photoshop.

5) VLC Media Player : It can replace the default Media Player on Windows and is very versatile. It can almost play everything. It can play various audio and video formats (MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, DivX, mp3, ogg) as well as DVDs, VCDs, and various streaming protocols.

6) Outlook Attachment Remover : If you are stuck with Outlook as I am (although ThunderBird is considered as it’s replacement, for me it botches some of my emails), this free outlook attachment remover is extremely handy, especially if you get lot of attachments in your emails. This became very helpful for my office system too, since it extracts emails from outlook and keeps it in a pre-specified folder and still keeps the link intact in the email. Very very handy.

7) AVG Antivirus : Instead of spending money for Norton/Symantec Antivirus, the same kind of protection can be obtained by installing the free anti-virus software AVG. It provides a really good protection and doen’t consume huge amount of your resources. With Norton, I always had problems that the system runs slower. AVG is super cool and it keeps updating the virus definitions.

8) Office : The worst part of Windows, is that it comes with lot of unnecessary pre-installed products like IE, but it does not come pre-installed with Microsoft Office. You need to pay extra money to get the Office installed. This is where OpenOffice comes into picture. It is as close replacement to MS Office as it can be.

9) PDF Creator : It is a very handy tool, if you frequently write documents and want to share it with everyone. PDF obviously looks better than word documents. Just install the PDF creator and “print” any document to convert it to PDF. Simple!!

10) GNU Cash : If you want to have a software for managing your personal finance or a small business, then don’t go spending those $$ for buying any software. GNU Cash is extremely good and it is free. It uses a double-entry system, which might be confusing at first, but the tutorials are very nice. It will take you just few minutes to install and start going. It will take some time to look into specific features your need, but almost all that is needed is present. I will be doing a full review of the product later in some other post.

Financial Game - Creditability

For my earlier post, I received a comment from RaagvamDutt, telling me about reverse mortgage. I am aware of reverse mortgage and know that it can be handy for old couple with constraint income. It does not contradict my conclusions of the earlier post, rather it compliments it.

• Buy a house at old age, for living in it, and if you income is not sufficient, put the house on reverse mortgage, to earn that extra income and still live in it.

I just downloaded a new financial game called Creditability. It looks to me a pretty interesting game. Here is what the website claims :

Creditability is set in four different environments: university, a shopping precinct, TV studios and a village. The purpose of the game is to successfully complete the various tasks and challenges within each environment, building up knowledge of money, credit and debt.

Here are some screenshots :

                                  

Why NOT to buy a house - II

I received some comments on my earlier post. Jyoti said :

Your post lists all the valid points for "Buying a house after taking home loan at very high interest rate". But one point is missed - taking a house a investment and selling it after making decent profit and in process accumulating some fund.

I did mention this point in my earlier post

If you really had all the time in world to buy a house and sell it after 2-3 years, then I think you should go ahead.

Jyoti pointed out that a house can be helpful for old people who have no one to take care of – Sell the house and live on interest OR put the house on rent.

Well first thing, if you are old with no earning and entirely dependent on your children to support you, then it is for sure that either you really goofed up prioritising your financial goals OR you had blind trust on your children for support. I agree that there are lots of people who fall under this category and this is an important lesson of all of us in our generation.

Let me tackle her options (assuming I am that old person):

1) Put the house on rent

If I put the house on rent, then I too have to live in a rented apartment, unless I have more than one house. I can gain only if my rent is less than my tenant’s :) Simple maths. If I want to do that I have to lower my living standards. For example, if I have a house which can be put on rent for 14K, then to successfully live on that rent, I need to stay in a house with a rent say 4K-5K. If I as flat owner want to charge more rent, so will be my flat owner :) Doesn’t make sense…. (Another option exists, you rent out the flat in a metro and go and stay in your village/small town, but that is my whole point, if you have to do that why not purchase a house in the same village/small town, it wont cost much and you can use the money earned during lifetime in some better investment avenues)

2) Sell the house and live on interest

This is only possible if you earned a handsome while selling. Imagine for example, today you buy a flat in Bangalore costing 25-40 lakhs, when you retire (30 years from now) how much you expect the returns? Keep in mind that when you sell, so many factors can kill your calculations. Imagine the plight of people who bought houses near old airport (in Bangalore) few years back, now with the airport shifting, the prices have come down, and no guarantee that prices will bounce back and to what levels. I was talking to one of my office-mate who works in Fremont (USA). He was telling me about his friend who bought a house in USA few years back and now when he wants to sell he is finding no takers, he is now even willing to have a loss and sell it. Yes, ofcourse you can gain a lot, but basing your entire post-retirement life on this is not a sound idea (unless you have other investments which can take care of that). BTW, we have not factored the amount of money you have invested over the period in home loans (A 40 lakh house post home loan interest can cost you even 60 lakhs or more based on interest rates). And what about the inflation? Say your 60 lakhs house (including interest) sells at 5 crores (just a random number), do you think that would be enough after 30 years?

As an example, my dad started earning Rs 500 per month 40 years back and lived handsomely (he used to say lavishly) despite the fact that out of Rs 500 he used to pay Rs 200 for his brother’s studies. So essentially he stayed lavishly in Rs 300. After 40 years, i.e. now, if you want to stay that lavishly probably you need around Rs 1 Lakh (just a guess) in a metro. Let me lower it to Rs 50000 [post tax]. If you want to be more conservative in your living, you can even live in Rs 25000 [Rent, travel, grocery etc etc assuming no liabilities] That is close to 50 times. So to maintain current living standard you need may be 50 times that you earn per month. So Rs 25K now, would translate to Rs 12.5 lakhs per month (what about inflation causing rupee depreciation). This is the interest you need per month, so you need a whopping Rs 150 lakhs per year as interest with investing Rs 4.4 crore (34 % per annum). I hope my calculation is correct :)

But at any rate assuming at old age and no responsibility exist, just to live at the same standard, you can not do it alone on a house.

Conclusion:

• Buy a house for living in it, at old age.


• Don’t expect your children to stay with you (unless you keep them dependent on you)


• Don’t just buy because everyone is buying, think long term, where you want to settle in your old age. Timing and location are important.


• Buy a house which you can maintain. In old age, it is difficult to spend huge money on maintaining big house. Security is also a concern.


• There are so many investment avenues other than house, think about that. In old age, big house won’t help, but surely the life long memories of your world travel can help. Spend money to enjoy life, and not to get imprisoned by the enormous house loan burden.


• Keep accumulating small portion of money and buy a house when you are in your forties. At that age, your will be at the peak of your responsibilities, you can have your priorities clear.

If you are earning in dollars or have loads of money, then only buying a house makes sense as investment.